Clay weekly context brief for the Economics category (ISO week 2026-W33).

Clay tracks publications from the Economics feed list. Below are recent items from this category, each with its source and a short description of what the publication covers when one is available in the source feed.

Recent publications:
1. A Costly-information Foundation for Psychometric Curves
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.05444
   We study a binary choice problem in which an agent chooses between two actions whose payoff depends on a continuous state.
2. Monsoon Mayhem to Market Waves: Forecasting Fisheries Resilience in Sri Lanka
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.04023
   Sri Lanka's fisheries sector is important for jobs and food supply.
3. Consistent estimation in logit models using historical choices as practical consideration set
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.06638
   A key challenge in choice modeling lies in specifying the consideration set, the subset of alternatives that individuals actually evaluate when making choices, which is unobserved (latent) to the researcher.
4. The Institutional Window: Occupation- and Jurisdiction-Specific Calibration of Liability Signaling for Preserved Human Fallback Capability
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.05969
   Problem definition.
5. Nine Raters, One Index: Carrying LLM Disagreement into Labour-Market Estimates
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.22748
   When a large language model supplies research annotations, the choice of model becomes an analytic degree of freedom.
6. Complementarities in Sparse Two-Sided Interaction Models
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.22884
   This paper studies complementarities in two-sided interaction models when only a sparse subset of potential matches is realized.
7. Strategic Heterogeneity: Welfare Gains from Secession and Immigration
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.06092
   This paper investigates the strategic and welfare properties of endogenous population partitioning (secession) within large-population anonymous games featuring strategic heterogeneity.
8. Benefits of Shifting Passenger Traffic from Air to Rail: A Case Study of California High-Speed Rail
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.05636
   This study provides a method to quantify the benefits of shifting passenger traffic from air to high-speed rail from the perspective of flight-delay cost reduction.
9. Optimal Policy Choices Under Uncertainty
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.03910
   Policymakers often face the decision of how to allocate resources across many different policies using noisy estimates of policy impacts.
10. Stochastic Choice with Distribution-Dependent Preferences
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.06152
   We develop a continuous-time stochastic choice theory with endogenous preference evolution.
11. Large-Market Discipline in Combinatorial Double Auctions: No Assembly, Bundle Selection, and Complementarities
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.06134
   We study double auctions for markets in which goods are valuable in bundles, such as data, model weights, and fine-tuned AI assets.
12. Fixed-Effect Saturation Is Not Weak Identification: Certifying Inference under Measurement Error
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.06053
   Fixed-effect saturation alone is not weak identification: in the baseline model, fixed-effect--residualized OLS is unbiased and conventional inference is asymptotically exact for every residual treatment variance $\tau^2=nQ_K>0$.
13. There Ain't No Such Thing as a Free Equilibrium
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.06327
   I argue that there is a sense in which universal equilibrium (defined loosely) existence in games is incompatible with eschewing strictly dominated strategies and a sense in which it isn't.
14. Does generative AI narrow education-based productivity gaps? Evidence from a randomized experiment
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.04198
   Does generative artificial intelligence (AI) widen or narrow productivity gaps across workers?
15. Bartlett Couplings of the Onion and Vine LKJ Samplers
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.06116
   The extended-onion and C-vine constructions of Lewandowski, Kurowicka and Joe (2009) are standard methods for sampling from the $\mathrm{LKJ}_n(\eta)$ distribution on correlation matrices.
16. Equitable Auction Design with Provable Regret Guarantees
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.08369
   We study a mechanism design problem where a seller aims to allocate a good to multiple bidders, each with a private value.
17. Quantifying Different Gains from Trade in Quality
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.04409
   In this paper, I study to what extent countries differ in their preferences for quality and their technologies for improving quality.
18. Drivers of Success: A Bayesian State-Space Model to Disentangling Latent Driver and Constructor Abilities in Formula One
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.04629
   Formula One outcomes reflect the joint contributions of drivers and constructors, but these contributions are unobserved and vary over time.
19. Rational Learning One Step Off the Path
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.05380
   Which social norms are self-correcting under rational learning?
20. From Long to Short: How Interest Rates Shape Life Insurance Markets
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.04925
   This paper explores how financial institutions pass interest rate risk through to product markets using the life insurance industry as a setting.
21. Clustered Local Projections for Short and Ultra-Short Time Series -- A Hierarchical Bayesian Framework
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.04631
   Estimating the dynamic effects of economic shocks in short and very short samples is impeded by a lack of degrees of freedom.
22. Catastrophic Attention Preferences
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.05379
   This paper provides an axiomatic foundation for catastrophic thinking, a form of pessimism in which an agent evaluates uncertain alternatives by attending only to a subset of adverse outcomes.
23. The Role of Risk Sharing in Attenuating Business Cycles Within Currency Unions
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.04977
   The United States is a currency union where multiple risk-sharing mechanisms--- migration, fiscal transfers, income diversification and credit markets---buffer consumption from local income fluctuations.
24. Soft-Noncrossing Bayesian Panel Quantile Regression for Measuring Climate Tail Risk
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.04664
   We develop a hierarchical Bayesian panel quantile regression model in which unit-specific coefficient paths are smoothed across quantiles by Gaussian processes, while a common time effect absorbs aggregate shocks.
25. Informational Content of Auction Prices
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.04332
   We study auctions of k identical objects to n bidders, each of whom wants at most one.
26. Population change, age structure, and socio-economic performance
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.16872
   Concerns about declining or ageing populations often centre on the possibility that fewer people or older age structures could weaken economies, strain fiscal systems, and reduce living standards.
27. Exact Inference in Fixed-Effect Regressions with Concentrated Identifying Variation
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.04839
   In saturated fixed-effects regressions, Gaussian inference depends not on total identifying variation but on its concentration, measured by the self-normalized leverage $\lambda_n$ of the residualized treatment.
28. Defensive Pessimism: Growth, Culture, and the Survival of Evidence
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.04787
   Successful cooperation can destroy the practice needed to recognize its own failure.
29. Reinforcement Learning and Consumption-Savings Behavior
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.20748
   This paper demonstrates how reinforcement learning can explain two puzzling empirical patterns in household consumption behavior during economic downturns.
30. A Pairwise Differencing Distribution Regression Approach for Network Models
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.04983
   I develop an estimation and inference framework for distribution regression in dyadic network settings with two-way fixed effects that vary across thresholds of the outcome.
31. Revealed Rationality: Label-Free Evaluation and Regularization from Representation Theorems
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.05015
   Representation theorems in decision theory establish that behavior satisfies certain axioms if and only if it can be rationalized by a well-defined objective.
32. A New Theory of Value for Post-AGI Economics
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.01432
   Artificial general intelligence (AGI) may weaken scarcities in labour, expertise, information, and productive capability that underpin established theories of economic value.
33. Estimating Heterogeneity in Travel Mode Choice Shifts with Causal Forests
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.04208
   Objectives: While causal analysis of travel behavior is an emerging field, estimating heterogeneity in mode choice through causal modeling remains unexplored.

Sources in this brief: econ.EM (Econometrics); econ.GN (General Economics); econ.TH (Theoretical Economics).
Selected 33 of 473 available items for this weekly brief.