Clay weekly context brief for the Economics category (ISO week 2026-W34).

Clay tracks publications from the Economics feed list. Below are recent items from this category, each with its source and a short description of what the publication covers when one is available in the source feed.

Recent publications:
1. Parameter Identification in Autoregressions under Discrete Sampling or Temporal Aggregation
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.13224
   I consider an AR($p$) process that is observed every $q$ periods, either as a snapshot (stock variable) or as a sum over the sampling interval (flow variable).
2. Training AI For When Humans Will Use It
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.12538
   AI predicts; humans use its predictions to make decisions.
3. How Organizations Use AI: Evidence from ChatGPT
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.12236
   We study how organizations use frontier generative AI by linking ChatGPT Enterprise account records to usage, worker roles, task classifications, and public-company financial data through March 2026.
4. Measuring the Arrow of Time: Identification, Estimation, and Inference for Directional Structure in Multivariate Time Series
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.13431
   Many questions across the sciences take the same form: several coupled series are observed together, and the analyst wants to know not merely that they move together but which one moves first, and how strongly.
5. Algorithm Transparency and Search Manipulation: Steering vs. Persuasion
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.12558
   We study a platform that prefers to sell the more profitable of two products.
6. Technology interactions reshape the economics of China's coal power decarbonization
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.11404
   Decarbonizing existing coal-fired power plants can contribute to near-term climate mitigation, but identifying cost-effective retrofit strategies is complicated by interactions among mitigation technologies.
7. Learning about Treatment Effects in Panels under Unknown Interference
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.13466
   When comparison units may also respond to treatment, panel comparisons reflect both the treatment effect and spillovers.
8. Schedule equilibria
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.12818
   This paper studies imperfect competition in general equilibrium when households and firms choose price-contingent schedules.
9. Robustness over efficiency in climate coalitions: a bistable model and a map of architectures
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.12143
   Designs for international climate cooperation face a trade-off between allocative efficiency and robustness to the erosion of institutions by defection, renegotiation, and political turnover.
10. A Bayesian latent class reinforcement learning framework to capture adaptive, feedback-driven travel behaviour
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.14713
   Many travel decisions involve a degree of experience formation, where individuals learn their preferences over time.
11. Incidence Bimatrix Games
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.13001
   We solve a natural bimatrix game related to graphs.
12. Organizational Technology Ladders: Remote Work and Generative AI Adoption
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.11626
   This study proposes that firms move along an "organizational technology ladder": adopting one technology transforms hiring and work processes and builds skills and organizational capital that change the cost of adopting subsequent technologies.
13. Liquidity-Based Audit of Algorithmic Trading Strategies
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.29018
   We show that net demand for liquidity by algo strategies is identifiable from its trade and price history alone, with no knowledge of its signal or optimization problem.
14. Breaking the Chain: Division Norms and Criminal Deterrence
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.13327
   In organized crime, membership moves fastest, deterrence capacity moves more slowly, and division norms move slowest.
15. Oil price shocks reveal unequal capacities for mobility adaptation
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.12281
   Urban decarbonization often raises the cost of travel, yet which neighbourhoods can adapt remains largely invisible under normal conditions.
16. Local Asymptotics for Treatment Choice with Partial Identification
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.09027
   We provide a new asymptotic framework to derive approximately optimal treatment assignments when sampling noise from data is compounded by fundamental uncertainty due to partial identification.
17. Broad Validity of the First-Order Approach in Moral Hazard
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.18873
   We consider the standard moral hazard problem with limited liability.
18. Entangled vs. Separable Choice
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.09045
   A judge observes the joint probabilistic choice rule of two decision makers: the frequency of action pairs across pairs of local covariates.
19. Optimal Experimental Design and Estimation when Potential Outcomes are Bounded
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.09812
   I study the optimal design and analysis of randomized experiments for estimating finite-population average treatment effects when potential outcomes are known to be bounded, as with binary outcomes.
20. Quality at Stale Prices
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.20539
   Posted prices determine both demand and what a sale reveals about a seller.
21. SolarChain: A Physics-Grounded Embodied IoT System for Verifiable Urban Solar Market Design
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.23162
   Distributed solar markets must coordinate physical reports, economic allocation, and public settlement even when IoT data can be manipulated.
22. General Bayesian Policy Learning
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.23672
   This study proposes a General Bayes framework for policy learning.
23. Coordinating Treatment Allocation and Recommendation
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.21120
   We study a model in which a sender allocates limited treatment to agents with heterogeneous quality and later recommends selected agents to a receiver, seeking to maximize the number of agents accepted by the receiver.
24. The Human-AI Substitution Principle: When will you be replaced by AI in your organization?
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.20781
   Artificial Intelligence (AI) is rapidly transforming organizations, raising a fundamental organizational and economic question: when will a human employee be replaced by AI?
25. Sequential Audit Sampling for Finite Populations with Exact and Simulation-based Guarantee
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.06116
   Financial statement auditors use a risk-based approach to evidence collection to obtain reasonable assurance.
26. On the construction and representation of social welfare orders satisfying consequentialist equity axioms
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.23428
   In this paper we examine the constructive nature of social welfare orders on infinite utility streams $X=Y^{\mathbb{N}}$ satisfying Strong Equity, Hammond Equity, or the Pigou--Dalton transfer principle.
27. Translation Readiness Index: Measuring the Semantic Proximity of Research to Patented Science
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.31102
   Universities, funders, and investors often need to spot research with translational potential early, long before downstream outcomes like licenses, startups, or patents emerge.
28. Estimating the perturbed utility route choice model with trip-level data
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.11464
   We provide an estimator for the perturbed utility route choice (PURC) model that works with data at the level of individual trips.
29. Defensive Pessimism: Growth, Culture, and the Survival of Evidence
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.04787
   Successful systems standardize, but standardization can eliminate the living alternatives by which failure would later be recognized.
30. Mastering Stochastic OLG Models in Continuous Time
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.11134
   We propose a comprehensive framework for solving overlapping-generations (OLG) models in continuous time with both idiosyncratic and aggregate risk.
31. Estimation and exclusion restrictions in clustered linear models
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.12860
   We study linear regression models with clustered data, high-dimensional controls, and intricate exclusion restrictions.
32. Diversity as Majorization
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.11497
   How should institutions compare group diversity, and which group should they select when they value diversity and merit?
33. Workplace dependence in urban economies
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.07588
   Remote work has fundamentally reshaped urban economic life, and the spatial organisation of activity across cities.

Sources in this brief: econ.EM (Econometrics); econ.GN (General Economics); econ.TH (Theoretical Economics).
Selected 33 of 469 available items for this weekly brief.