Clay weekly context brief for the Economics category (ISO week 2026-W35).

Clay tracks publications from the Economics feed list. Below are recent items from this category, each with its source and a short description of what the publication covers when one is available in the source feed.

Recent publications:
1. Fast and Efficient Bayesian Analysis of Structural Vector Autoregressions Using the R Package bsvars
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.15090
   The R package bsvars provides a wide range of tools for empirical macroeconomic and financial analyses using Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregressions.
2. Are Final Market Prices Sufficient for Information Aggregation? Evidence from Last-Minute Dynamics in Parimutuel Betting
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.14645
   This study presents evidence challenging the practice of inferring risk preferences, probability perceptions, and beliefs from parimutuel betting markets, where wagers cannot be made contingent on final odds.
3. Random Cap: Optimal Informationally Robust Delegation
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.19846
   Are simple delegation rules optimal under ambiguity?
4. When the Scaffold Stays On: AI, Practice Style, and Screening in Elite Skill Formation
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.06253
   Generative AI raises short-term productivity by completing tasks that learners would otherwise practice on their own.
5. Happy Birthday? Age Labels, Search Criteria, and Matching from Dating to Marriage
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.23325
   Age is a match trait and a prominent label on search platforms.
6. The Order of Binary Experiments under Endogenous Stopping
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.19897
   We study the comparison of binary statistical experiments in large samples where information is acquired sequentially and the number of observations can depend on realized evidence.
7. Determining the Structure of Dynamic Factor Models
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.26142
   We propose two procedures for determining the number of dynamic factors, extending Bai and Ng (2002) and Ahn and Horenstein (2013) to dynamic factor models where lagged factors may directly influence the observed variables.
8. Robustness over efficiency in climate coalitions: a bistable model and a map of architectures
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.12143
   Designs for international climate cooperation face a trade-off between efficiency and robustness to institutional erosion by defection, renegotiation, and political turnover.
9. Characterizations of continuous adequate objective functions for ordinal or interval scaled data
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.20074
   Objective functions (goodness criteria which have to be optimized) that are considered, for instance, in cluster analysis, factor analysis, (linear) structural equation modeling, (linear) regression, multidimensional scaling, choice theory, and utility theory, must be {\em adequate}, i.e.
10. When and How to Pilot: Design Rules for Two-Wave Experiments
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.16982
   Experimenters often run pilots, but how much a small pilot should shape the main-wave design has no settled answer.
11. Is Bitcoin A Hedge Against Central Banking? Evidence from AI-Driven Monetary Policy Expectations
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.08825
   This study investigates the transmission of monetary policy narratives to Bitcoin prices, distinguishing policy expectations from realized policy implementation.
12. Time-constrained Dynamic Mechanisms for College Admissions
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2207.12179
   Recent literature shows that dynamic matching mechanisms may outperform their static counterparts.
13. Asymptotic Theory for IV-Based Reinforcement Learning with Potential Endogeneity
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.04021
   In the standard data analysis framework, data is collected (once and for all), and then data analysis is carried out.
14. Multidimensional Sorting: Comparative Statics
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.10853
   Characterizing multidimensional sorting problems is notoriously difficult - solutions are known only for a small number of examples.
15. Linearity, Geometry, and Substitution in Aggregate Production
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.15760
   We study aggregate production under efficient input allocation across heterogeneous production units.
16. The one-period Kyle model has one equilibrium
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.23585
   Let $V$ and $U$ be independent standard normal random variables.
17. Value-transforming financial, carbon and biodiversity footprint accounting
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.14186
   Transformative changes in our production and consumption habits are needed to halt biodiversity loss.
18. Quantifying Inefficiency
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.11984
   We axiomatically define a cardinal social inefficiency function, which, given alternatives and individuals' vNM preferences, assigns a number -- the social inefficiency -- to each alternative.
19. Curvature-Calibrated Quasi-Bayesian Updating for Moment-Restricted Models
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.19634
   Moment restrictions provide a flexible basis for quasi-Bayesian inference when a full likelihood is unavailable, but the weighting matrix in a quadratic moment criterion determines both the relative importance of the moments and the information scale of posterior updating.
20. Europe's Climate Ambition Under Scrutiny: Evidence from Deep Learning Emission Projections
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.18690
   The European Union has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions 55% below 1990 levels by 2030, but whether current trends are compatible with this ambition remains uncertain.
21. Government Reputation and Fiscal Capacity
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.03087
   How does uncertain implementation shape fiscal policy over time?
22. A Design-Based Approach to Testing and Inference in (Quasi-)Experiments with Spillovers
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.08640
   Economic policies rarely affect only their direct targets.
23. CentaurBench: Benchmarking LLM Capabilities on Augmenting vs. Automating Real-World Work Tasks
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.18554
   Most LLM benchmarks rank models on their ability to automate work tasks.
24. Revealed Preference Analysis of Shapley-Scarf Housing Markets
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.23352
   We ask what the reallocation of indivisible objects reveals about the market that produced it.
25. A Distribution Regression Approach to Censored Selection Models
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.10814
   We develop a distribution regression model with a censored selection rule, offering a semi-parametric generalization of the Heckman selection model.
26. Shifting Social Dispositions, Stable Prosocial Traits: A Global Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Human Personality
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.18119
   Generational stereotypes are widespread, but they often rely on anecdotes, and it remains challenging to disentangle true birth-cohort differences from the universal effects of ageing and historical periods.
27. Whom Should a Platform Amplify? Truth, Engagement, and Networked Polarization
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.10228
   Social-media platforms allocate attention by deciding whose content receives reach.
28. Don't Drop the Singletons: Efficient Inference for Pairwise Experiments with Independent Attrition
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.18973
   Pairwise randomization can yield substantial efficiency gains in experiments.
29. Position: AI Leaderboards Are Underserving the Global South: A Case Study from India
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.18117
   This position paper argues that AI leaderboards are structurally ill-suited to serving the Global South because they lack independent governance, conflict-of-interest policies, and mechanisms for metric evolution.
30. Schedule equilibria
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.12818
   This paper studies general equilibrium when households and firms choose price-contingent schedules and market clearing determines prices.
31. Learning Sequential Mobility Choice: A Review of Route and Activity Choice through Inverse Reinforcement and Imitation Learning
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.15339
   Route and activity choice are connected levels of a common sequential mobility decision problem: activity choice determines what people do, where, and when, while route choice governs how they move between activities.
32. Crypto-Microeconomics: The Distribution of Bitcoin Wealth Among Diverse Economic Agents
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.03646
   Bitcoin (BTC) wealth distribution is often analyzed with macro indicators such as aggregate addresses, wallet balances, prices, network activity, fees, and hashrate.
33. An Isotonic Mechanism for Overlapping Ownership
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.11154
   Motivated by the problem of improving peer review at large scientific conferences, this paper studies how to elicit self-evaluations to improve review scores in a natural many-to-many owner-item (e.g., author-paper) situation with overlapping ownership.

Sources in this brief: econ.EM (Econometrics); econ.GN (General Economics); econ.TH (Theoretical Economics).
Selected 33 of 476 available items for this weekly brief.