Clay weekly context brief for the Economics category (ISO week 2026-W38).

Clay tracks publications from the Economics feed list. Below are recent items from this category, each with its source and a short description of what the publication covers when one is available in the source feed.

Recent publications:
1. Expected Shortfall Factor Models: Common Tail Losses and Expected Returns
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.10587
   We develop an expected shortfall factor model (ESFM) to estimate and price common variation in the severity of lower-tail losses in large panels of asset returns.
2. Utility-Level-Dependent Ambiguity
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.11748
   Experimental evidence suggests that ambiguity-sensitive choice can vary systematically with the circumstances of a decision.
3. Credible Discourse on Climate Policy: Beyond Dueling Certitudes
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.09337
   Whatever the policy question under consideration, reasoned and realistic evaluation requires credible policy analysis under uncertainty.
4. ACT, WAIT, or EXPERIMENT: A Causal Governance Framework for Retail Price Optimization Under Abstentions
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.10615
   This paper presents a causal decision-making framework for estimating price elasticity in retail channels, a process typically confounded by promotions, competitor movements, and market frictions.
5. Equilibrium Architecture in Multi-Battle Contests with Count-Dependent Prizes
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.02031
   Two contestants with possibly different marginal costs compete across identical battlefields governed by a Tullock technology with discriminatory power at most one.
6. Reducing Prescription Errors Through Information Intervention: A Field Experiment in Healthcare Operations
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.09673
   Drug-drug interaction (DDI) errors pose serious risks to patient safety.
7. Average Treatment Effect Localization: Projection Methods in Synthetic Control
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.10617
   Many real-world policies and business interventions require assessing short-term effects to inform timely decisions, even though most causal inference methods focus on long-term average treatment effects.
8. Flow Games with Public Arcs: the Least Core and the Nucleolus
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.23288
   We study flow games with public arcs, an extension of classical cooperative flow games that allows players to use public resources.
9. How an Economy Shrinks in Space: Concavity-on-Jobs and Upward Consolidation under Demographic Decline
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.09859
   When a country's population declines, the aggregate economy appears to contract on the intensive margin: industrial diversity intact, every industry a little smaller.
10. Identification in Linear Quantile Panel Models
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.10925
   This paper studies identification in linear quantile panel models with unrestricted individual heterogeneity when the number of time periods is fixed and small.
11. No Screening is More Efficient with Multiple Objects
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2408.10077
   We study the welfare-maximizing allocation of heterogeneous objects when screening uses costly effort rather than monetary transfers.
12. High Volume Low Complexity Surgical Hubs in England: Can They Improve Physician Productivity?
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.10380
   Whether organisational separation of elective and emergency care improves physician productivity remains an open question.
13. Experimental Design for Policy Choice
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.10971
   We show how to optimally design experiments when the resulting data will be used to choose a welfare-maximizing policy subject to constraints.
14. Truthful Communication and Exclusive Information Clubs
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.02776
   This paper studies how strategic communication shapes endogenous communication networks.
15. Strategic communication of narratives: An experiment
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.10074
   We investigate the strategic communication of narratives under model uncertainty.
16. Market-Informed Networks for Modeling and Forecast Evaluation of Financial Extremes
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.11575
   Modeling the joint distribution of extreme values in high-dimensional financial time series is challenging because extremes are sparse and locally extreme observations are not necessarily extreme relative to their full marginal distribution.
17. Strategic Type Spaces
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.08297
   We provide a strategic foundation for information: in any given game with incomplete information we define strategic quotients as information representations that are sufficient for players to compute best-responses to other players.
18. Italian Business-to-Business Invoicing Data: A Network Analysis
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.10227
   We present a comprehensive description of the network of Italian Business-to-Business commercial relationships, based on the universe of electronic invoices collected by the Italian Tax Office.
19. Generative Marketing Mix Modeling: A Causal Inference Framework Linking GEO and GEM to Business Impact
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.11915
   Generative artificial intelligence changes how firms reach customers, but standard marketing data do not record how often users see and notice a firm's name in generated answers.
20. The Category Gm for Extensive-Form Games
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2105.11398
   This paper introduces $\mathbf{Gm}$, which is a category for extensive-form games.
21. Tracks to Modernity: Railroads, Growth, and Social Movements in Denmark
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.21141
   We examine how railroads shaped Denmark's nineteenth-century economic transformation and the diffusion of Grundtvigian institutions.
22. Partial Identification from Bunching at Kinks and Notches
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2205.10310
   This paper proposes a partial identification approach to using choices around a kink or notch as a means to overcome endogeneity in a general nonparametric choice model.
23. Where Should Society Draw the Line? A Social Choice Approach to Collective Consent
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.10759
   Society constantly has to determine the boundaries of what it deems acceptable, from legislative decisions to the guardrails governing autonomous systems.
24. Revisiting H\"otte (2025): A Companion Analysis with Extended Evidence from UK Inter-Industry Payment Data, 2017-2024
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.17695
   In 2025, the UK Office for National Statistics released a novel dataset of monthly inter-industry payment flows during January 2017 to November 2024 at the 5-digit SIC level (ONS, 2025a), covering $>$3.1 million UK organizations.
25. Changes-in-Changes for Ordered Choice Models with Underreporting
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.00618
   We develop a Difference-in-Differences framework for discrete, ordered outcomes subject to underreporting.
26. The Response of Consumption to Interest Rates with Borrowing Constraints: An Analytical Approach
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.09888
   I derive an explicit mapping from initial assets, income and the real interest rate to consumption for an income fluctuation problem with a borrowing constraint and CARA utility.
27. AI Coding Tools and Digital Entrepreneurship: The Role of Software Expertise
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.06545
   While digital technologies expand entrepreneurial access by providing technical resources, it is less known whether they enable ventures to create durable value and whether they can substitute for technical expertise accumulated through software work experience.
28. Triple Difference Designs with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.19620
   Triple difference designs have become increasingly popular in empirical economics.
29. On accessibility of the core in mutidimensional spatial majority voting situations
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.10029
   In this paper we consider situations of (multidimensional) spatial majority voting.
30. Generative AI for Analysts
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.19705
   We study how generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) reshapes financial analysts' information production.
31. Generalized Covariance Estimator under Misspecification
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.13492
   This paper investigates the properties of the Generalized Covariance (GCov) estimator under misspecification with application to processes with local explosive patterns, such as causal-noncausal processes.
32. Monitoring Hierarchies in Knowledge Production
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.10499
   We study peer monitoring design in knowledge production.
33. A probabilistic match classification model for low-scoring sports
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.09673
   All existing match classification models in the tournament design literature suffer from two major limitations: a contestant is considered indifferent only if uncertain future results do never affect its prize, and competitive matches are not distinguished with respect to the incentives of the contestants.

Sources in this brief: econ.EM (Econometrics); econ.GN (General Economics); econ.TH (Theoretical Economics).
Selected 33 of 454 available items for this weekly brief.