Clay weekly context brief for the Economics category (ISO week 2026-W39).

Clay tracks publications from the Economics feed list. Below are recent items from this category, each with its source and a short description of what the publication covers when one is available in the source feed.

Recent publications:
1. StableEval Arena: A Cost-Aware Agentic Benchmark for Stablecoin Price Stability Prediction
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.18949
   We introduce StableEval Arena, a cost-aware benchmark framework for evaluating agentic AI systems on stablecoin peg-risk prediction.
2. Anonymous Accountability
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.19771
   We ask how an expert panel should disclose auditable conflicts of interest when reports are named and experts care about their reputations for ability.
3. Axiomatizing Local Asymptotic Minimax Risk
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.19738
   Local asymptotic minimax (LAM) risk is a foundational efficiency criterion in statistics and econometrics.
4. A Dual-Process Perspective on Nudge Susceptibility in LLM-Based GUI Agents
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.19843
   LLM-based GUI agents increasingly act on behalf of users in digital environments that were designed with human users in mind.
5. Putting Context into Preference Aggregation
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.19888
   The axioms underlying Arrow's impossibility theorem are very restrictive in terms of what can be used when aggregating preferences.
6. Cosine metric as a structural economic similarity measure
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.20424
   Structural similarity, the extent to which economic mechanisms respond alike to common shocks, matters for economic forecasting, policy transfer, and other decisions that rely on evidence from comparable settings.
7. The Joneses Visit an Economics Lab
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.07353
   Existing literature offers persuasive evidence that individuals care about how their consumption compares to that of peers, and proposes a large variety of explanatory models.
8. Rational Bargaining: Characterization and Implementation
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.19932
   The von Neumann-Morgenstern axioms are uncontroversial desiderata for individual decision-making.
9. Beyond Linearity: Semiparametric Solutions to Contamination Bias with Multi-valued Treatments
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.20473
   We examine semiparametric solutions to contamination bias for nonbinary treatments.
10. Market-Driven Equilibria for Distributed Photovoltaic Panel Investment
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.07203
   This study investigates long-term investment in distributed photovoltaic panels by individual investors.
11. A polyhedral characterization of worker-quasi-stable matchings
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.20032
   We provide the first polyhedral characterization of worker-quasi-stable matchings in the classical one-to-one matching model.
12. Using machine learning metrics to provide deeper insights into the performance of choice models
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.20655
   Machine learning (ML) techniques are increasingly drawing interest in the choice modelling (CM) field.
13. Screening Out the Needy: The Effects of SNAP Work Requirements
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.19660
   We examine the effectiveness of work requirements as a screening device in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP).
14. Stable Matchings and Their Histories: Historical Reachability under Population Shocks
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.20176
   Sequential-entry procedures need not reach every stable matching.
15. Omitted Variable Bias in Difference-in-Differences Designs
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.19386
   We study the omitted variable bias (OVB) problem in canonical difference-in-differences (DiD) designs when unobserved confounding induces departures from the parallel trends assumption.
16. Who Aggregates Information? Screening, Rent, and the Coexistence of CLOB and AMM Prediction Markets
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.20017
   Prediction-market shares differ from traditional financial products in that, with no information or outside utility, classical delta-neutral Central Limit Order Book~(CLOB) market making cannot be financed by payoff-uninformative noise flow.
17. Stable Allocations, Unstable Payment Paths: The Shapley Value and Voluntary Coalition Formation
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.20421
   The random-order interpretation of the Shapley value specifies both a terminal allocation and a payment path: when a player enters, she receives her marginal contribution at that moment.
18. Vector Vine Copula Models for Multivariate Longitudinal Data
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.19547
   Multivariate longitudinal data may exhibit non-Gaussian margins, nonlinear dynamics, and response vectors with composition that varies across waves.
19. Tradeable Import Certificates for Strategic Supply Security
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.20282
   Recent crises have made supply security central to trade policy.
20. Persistent mixed worldviews in the theory of chosen preferences
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.19316
   Bernheim, Braghieri, Mart\'inez-Marquina, and Zuckerman (2021, American Economic Review) develop a theory of chosen preferences and conjecture convergence to pure worldviews at low mindset flexibility.
21. Noise-adjusted turnover in estimated networks
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.20044
   Economic networks are often estimated separately over two periods, and changes in their edge sets are interpreted as structural rewiring.
22. An Arbitrarily Precise Global Closed Form Approximation for the Neoclassical Growth Model
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.20405
   I consider a neoclassical growth model with a constant absolute risk aversion (CARA) utility function and derive a global closed form approximation that is arbitrarily precise as the discount rate $\rho$ is close to the population growth rate $n$.
23. Berk-Nash Rationalizability
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.20708
   We introduce Berk--Nash rationalizability, a set-valued counterpart to Berk--Nash equilibrium for environments in which agents may hold misspecified models.
24. Risk-Set Transported Synthetic Control with Difference-in-Differences Adjustment under Staggered Treatment Adoption
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.20264
   In staggered treatment-adoption designs, later-treated units are valid controls for an earlier-treated cohort only until their own treatment begins, so the admissible donor set contracts with event time.
25. Unpriced Internal Externalities and Structural Inefficiency in Organizations
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.20462
   Organizations often invest substantial effort in improving internal mechanisms such as processes, governance, and technology, yet realize only modest performance gains.
26. Bundling against Learning
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.16396
   A monopolist sells multiple goods to an uninformed buyer.
27. Gaussian Boundary Inference in a Hypergeometric Heavy-Tailed Family
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.20393
   This paper develops inference for a Gaussian-nested hypergeometric family of distribution functions.
28. Does Training on Future Data Pay? Look-Ahead Bias in Forecasting with Pretrained Models
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.20554
   We examine whether post-origin training information inflates the measured accuracy and economic value of financial forecasts.
29. Reputation, Disclosure, and the Scope of Entry
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.21759
   An entrant deciding how widely to launch takes into account both an incumbent's ability to respond and what its earlier conduct reveals about that ability.
30. A Locally Robust Semiparametric Approach to Examiner IV Designs
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.19144
   I propose a locally robust semiparametric framework for estimating causal effects using examiner IV designs when adjustment for many or continuous covariates makes saturation infeasible or produces sparse cells.
31. A continuous-time dynamic contracting problem with limited liability and finite horizon
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.18287
   We perform a detailed study of a principal--agent problem in a continuous time version of the celebrated Holmstr\"om--Milgrom model (Econometrica 55 (2), 1987) where we add limited liability for the Agent.
32. Modeling Human Behavior with Type Vectors Using AI
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.18265
   We introduce a general, easy-to-implement AI-based modeling technique for analyzing human behavior.
33. Estimating treatment-effect heterogeneity across sites, in multi-site randomized experiments with few units per site
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.17254
   Multi-site randomized experiments, which are common in economics and medicine, can reveal how treatment effects vary across settings.

Sources in this brief: econ.EM (Econometrics); econ.GN (General Economics); econ.TH (Theoretical Economics).
Selected 33 of 448 available items for this weekly brief.