Clay weekly context brief for the Economics category (ISO week 2026-W40).

Clay tracks publications from the Economics feed list. Below are recent items from this category, each with its source and a short description of what the publication covers when one is available in the source feed.

Recent publications:
1. Generic Covariate Adjustment for Regression Discontinuity Designs
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.29249
   It is standard practice to include covariates in regression discontinuity designs (RDDs) and regression kink designs (RKDs), but the theoretical justification for doing so does not generally extend beyond linear estimands.
2. Do Female Directors Raise ESG Ratings? A Meta-Analysis
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.28549
   Appointing more women to corporate boards is widely expected to also raise firms' environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance.
3. On dynamic price formation in the course of capital reallocation driven by differential rates of profit: strict conservation of value supports Karl Marx's
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.29346
   We develop a dynamic three-sector model in which Marx's aggregate equalities (total price equals total value and total profit equals total surplus value) are treated as strict conservation constraints throughout capital reallocation and technical diffusion.
4. Kernel Balancing in Tree-based Methods
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.29440
   Studying heterogeneous treatment effects has become essential in experimental and observational studies.
5. From Individual to Social Imitation: How Communities Expand Organizational Search
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.28675
   Generative artificial intelligence illustrates a broader organizational puzzle: young, resource-constrained firms can build on knowledge produced across a wider field to address problems that exceed their internal experience.
6. The Complexity of Multiplayer Colonel Blotto Games with Player-Specific Values
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.30019
   We study equilibrium computation in discrete multiplayer Colonel Blotto games with player-specific battlefield values.
7. Network Realized GARCH--It\^o Models: Volatility Spillovers with High-Frequency Identification
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.29515
   We introduce a network realized GARCH-It\^o model in which volatility transmission is a dynamic relation among the latent daily integrated volatilities of multiple assets.
8. Improving Today, Narrowing Tomorrow: Collective Learning, Diversity, and Generativity
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.28681
   Generative AI makes a paradox newly visible: learning from a common source can improve what each firm does today while narrowing the variety available for tomorrow's discoveries.
9. A Polynomial-Time Test for Peak-Oriented Rationalizability
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.30042
   We study the computational complexity of peak-oriented rationalizability, a survey based revealed-preference test introduced by Seror (2026).
10. Multi-Dimensional Matching
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.29958
   We study a matching mechanism where agents and objects are described by features rather than complete rankings.
11. Don't Fake It If You Can't Make It: Driver Misconduct in Last-Mile Delivery
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.29080
   In the last two decades, last-mile delivery (LMD) firms have seen immense growth fueled by the success of e-commerce, leading to faster and cheaper deliveries.
12. Can Labor Markets Function in the Age of AI? The Evaluation Bottleneck in Hiring
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.30058
   AI-assisted job-search tools have become increasingly popular by making it easier to find and apply to jobs.
13. First as Tragedy? Second as What? Estimating Dynamic Effects of Recurrent Events
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.30007
   I study treatment effect estimation when treatment events have persistent effects and can be experienced more than once.
14. Decision-Relevant Information in Partially Observed Production Networks
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.29905
   A production network can remain largely unidentified even when the economic decision it supports is identified.
15. A footloose entrepreneur model in a continuous space
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.11241
   This paper studies a footloose entrepreneur model in a continuous space.
16. Panel Conditioning in Fixed-Effects Models: Identification and Bias Propagation
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.28871
   Panel conditioning, the causal effect of prior survey participation on responses, can vary with tenure.
17. Uncertain and Asymmetric Forecasts
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.05938
   Survey density forecasts are summarized by their second and third moments, read as uncertainty and as the balance of risks.
18. Constraint Preferences: Inattention and Aggregation
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.11600
   We study robust decision problems when individuals have maxmin preferences whose belief sets are neighborhoods around reference models, commonly known as "constraint preferences." We first show that a more disciplined form of rationally inattentive behavior is equivalent to the behavior implied by a subclass of constraint preferences.
19. Robust Estimation of Realized Correlation: New Insights about Intraday Fluctuations in Market Betas
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.19992
   Time-varying volatility is an inherent feature of economic time series and complicates correlation measurement at high frequencies.
20. Critical Mathematical Economics and Progressive Computer Science
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.06015
   The aim of this article is to present elements and discuss the potential of a research program at the intersection between mathematics and heterodox economics, which we call Criticial Mathematical Economics (CME).
21. Local Expected Utility in Infinite-Dimensional Spaces: Theory and Elicitation
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.25026
   This paper develops a decision-theoretic interpretation of local expected utility on Abstract Wiener space.
22. Conditional-Moment Estimation and Inference in the BLP Model
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.15736
   The random-coefficient demand model of Berry, Levinsohn, and Pakes (1995) is commonly estimated by the generalized method of moments (GMM), using an unconditional moment restriction with a fixed set of instruments.
23. Capitalizing Risk, Regulation, and Revised Perceptions: Sequential Shocks in Florida's Condominium Market
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.02791
   Housing markets capitalize new information about future risks and ownership costs, yet less is known about how capitalization evolves when closely sequenced information and regulatory shocks alter what markets had previously priced.
24. Insuring the Fallback: Capital, Monitoring, and the Certification of Preserved Human Capability under Improving AI
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.26172
   When generative AI makes the deliverable uninformative, a professional-services provider can still certify the preserved human capability to catch the machine's errors, through a liability pledge whose expected cost falls in that capability.
25. Nonlinear Drivers of Macroeconomic Tail Risk: A Threshold Stochastic Volatility-in-Mean VAR with Regime-Dependent Leverage
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.26994
   The tails of macroeconomic outcomes can respond differently from the centre of their distribution: shocks with modest effects on median growth or inflation can shift downside growth or upside inflation risk.
26. Sovereign Grassroots Currencies: A CBDC Architecture for Credit and Monetary Policy (Full Version)
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.27727
   A Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) is central-bank money in digital form, held by the public.
27. Implicit Smooth Ambiguity: Perception, Attitude, and Identification
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.26964
   This paper develops a model of identifiable smooth ambiguity in a finite-state Anscombe-Aumann framework in which ambiguity perception and the ambiguity-attitude representation may depend on the act's endogenous certainty-equivalent utility level.
28. Testing for Heterogeneous Treatment Effects in Regression Discontinuity Designs
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.27691
   We propose a nonparametric test for unobserved treatment effect heterogeneity in regression discontinuity designs.
29. The Cross-Section of Stock Returns and AI Exposure
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.30583
   We study 380 trillion tokens of realized AI consumption across more than four hundred LLMs.
30. Rare States and Long-Run Pricing
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.27134
   Macroeconomic crises are rare, yet they can have large effects on asset prices.
31. Distributional Difference-in-Differences: Aggregation Before or After Quantile Inversion?
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.27944
   Staggered distributional difference-in-differences produces cohort-specific potential-outcome distributions, but applied work typically wants one overall quantile treatment effect.
32. When Trust Attracts Fraud: AI and Trust Arbitrage
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.27404
   Trust can attract fraud when it delays verification.
33. Singleton-Attainability and Transparent Access in Matching
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.27293
   Matching mechanisms differ in how much of an agent's preference ranking must be determined and reported to obtain a particular object.

Sources in this brief: econ.EM (Econometrics); econ.GN (General Economics); econ.TH (Theoretical Economics).
Selected 33 of 449 available items for this weekly brief.