Clay weekly context brief for the Economics category (ISO week 2026-W42).

Clay tracks publications from the Economics feed list. Below are recent items from this category, each with its source and a short description of what the publication covers when one is available in the source feed.

Recent publications:
1. Rolling Window Selection in FAR Models with Structural Instabilities
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.12025
   The paper develops a theory for selecting the rolling window when generating out-of-sample forecasts with factor-augmented regression (FAR) models in the presence of structural instabilities.
2. Risk Ceilings and Development Deadlines: Pacing AI under Uncertain Safety Productivity
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.11093
   Can a regulator promise both a risk ceiling and a development deadline when safety productivity is unknown?
3. Decision Noise in Threshold Selection
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.11089
   Can noisier threshold selection produce a group with higher mean true value?
4. The Panel Information Matrix Test
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.12350
   The Information Matrix (IM) test is a natural specification check for likelihood-based models, yet cross-sectional implementations are often badly sized, confound neglected heterogeneity with distributional misspecification, and require third derivatives.
5. Who Leads and Who Collects:Algorithmic Collusion in Markets of Heterogeneous Language Models
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.11256
   Evidence that pricing algorithms collude comes from markets in which every seller runs the same algorithm.
6. Dynamic Mechanism and Information Design in AI-Agent Environments: A General Analytical Framework
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.11177
   This paper develops a general framework for dynamic mechanism and information design with AI agents, encompassing optimal contracting and integrating evolving hidden information and hidden action with partial verification, technological authorization, and multi-agent interaction.
7. Estimation of Average Effects in Short $T$ Heterogeneous Panels
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.11680
   The commonly used two-way fixed effects estimator is biased under correlated heterogeneity and can lead to misleading inference.
8. The Myth of Restrictive Working-Time Agreements: Firms' Working-Time Adjustment after Exit from Collective Bargaining
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.12049
   Employers in Germany argue that collective agreements restrict their flexibility concerning working hours.
9. Information Divergence and Endogenous Evolution of Asymmetric Information
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.11200
   Standard theories trace information asymmetry to privately held information, heterogeneous signals, or costly information acquisition.
10. Debiased Machine Learning when Nuisance Parameters Appear in Indicator Functions
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.15934
   This paper studies debiased machine learning when nuisance parameters appear in indicator functions.
11. Microfinance Competition in the Presence of Moneylenders: Theory and Evidence
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.12186
   After decades of microfinance expansion and despite charging higher interest rates, moneylenders continue to exist alongside microfinance institutions (MFIs).
12. Singular Equilibrium and Selection of Narratives
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.11615
   An agent learns from data that many parameters of her model explain equally well.
13. Scalable likelihood-based inference for limited dependent variable models
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.13851
   Limited dependent variable models are central to empirical economics, but likelihood-based inference is infeasible when likelihoods involve high-dimensional integration over latent variables.
14. Delphos: A reinforcement learning framework for assisting discrete choice model specification
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.06410
   We introduce Delphos, a deep reinforcement learning framework for assisting discrete choice model specification process.
15. Delegate Pricing to Algorithms: When Slow and Steady Wins the Race
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.11675
   We study the strategic design of learning algorithms in a canonical continuous-time pricing game.
16. Accuracy of Uniform Inference on Fine Grid Points
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.18627
   Uniform confidence bands are widely used in empirical analysis for uncertainty qualification of nonparametric inference of unknown functions.
17. Trade Liberalization and Product Innovation: The Dynamic Role of Exporting
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.23825
   How does trade liberalization affect firms' incentives to innovate?
18. Dictatorial profiles: a proof of Arrow's theorem
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.11851
   We study social welfare rules with strict individual and social preferences.
19. When Does Inexact Matching Ensure Balance and Inference without Adjustment?
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.10873
   One-to-one matching without replacement is a classical approach to constructing comparable treated and control samples in the design of observational studies.
20. Sovereign Grassroots Currencies: A CBDC Architecture for Credit and Monetary Policy (Full Version)
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.27727
   A Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) is central-bank money in digital form, held by the public.
21. Protecting Losers Undermines Auction Credibility
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.12204
   A second-price auction must determine its price but need not learn how far losing values lie below it.
22. Building Macroeconomically Relevant Climate Indices via the Assemblage VAR
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.10043
   What should a macroeconomically relevant climate index contain?
23. Does Rank Still Matter? Position Bias When AI Agents Shop on Our Behalf
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.22697
   When shopping is delegated to AI agents, it is unclear whether the ranking advantage documented for humans persists.
24. Learning about informativeness
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.05299
   We study whether individuals can learn the informativeness of their information technology through social learning.
25. From a Hierarchy of Stochastic Differential Equations to a Hierarchy of Generalized Beta Distributions
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.10476
   We introduce a mean-reverting stochastic differential equation with a three-component stochastic term and show that it generates a hierarchy of steady-state (stationary) distributions.
26. Demand Models for Market-Level Data with Closed-Form Inverses
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.10069
   We introduce a class of demand models for market-level data.
27. Costly Comparison and Informational Inertia
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.01263
   A price cut can attract consumers while changing what their purchases reveal to later buyers.
28. Cluster-Robust Prediction-Powered Inference
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.09601
   Data collection is often costly or logistically demanding, limiting both the questions researchers can pursue and how precisely they can answer them.
29. The addicted predator-prey model: How opioid use disorder shapes productivity and growth-cycle dynamics
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.10356
   This paper extends Goodwin's (1967) predator-prey growth-cycle model to incorporate the negative impact of Opioid Use Disorder (OUD) on labor productivity.
30. Correlated Perfect Equilibrium
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.07906
   We propose a refinement of correlated equilibrium based on common perturbations of the mediator's recommendation distribution, which we call correlated perfect equilibrium (CPE).
31. When is statistical evidence strong enough? Using hypothesis tests to value data collection
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.09544
   Policy decisions often hinge on conventional p-value thresholds, which ignore economic costs and benefits of further data collection.
32. Validity Without Ground Truth: What Stated-Preference Economics Offers the Evaluation of Language Models
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.10506
   Many of the questions now put to large language models have no correct answer to score against: what a policy is worth, which option a user should choose, how to weigh competing values.
33. Index and Robustness of Mixed Equilibria: An Algebraic Approach
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.04298
   We present two results regarding the relation of the index of equilibria and the index of fixed points, and the index of equilibria and payoff-robustness: any integer can be the index of an isolated completely mixed equilibrium of a finite game.

Sources in this brief: econ.EM (Econometrics); econ.GN (General Economics); econ.TH (Theoretical Economics).
Selected 33 of 450 available items for this weekly brief.