Clay weekly context brief for the Economics category (ISO week 2026-W44).

Clay tracks publications from the Economics feed list. Below are recent items from this category, each with its source and a short description of what the publication covers when one is available in the source feed.

Recent publications:
1. Unambiguous Efficiency of Random Allocations
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.11899
   When allocating indivisible objects via lottery, planners often use ordinal mechanisms, which elicit agents' rankings of objects rather than their full preferences over lotteries.
2. Randomized Recruitment Driven Sampling
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.00365
   Surveys are critical inputs for research and policy, yet, enumerating a sampling frame is logistically infeasible or financially nonviable in many circumstances, such as during pandemics, natural disasters, or armed conflict.
3. Two-Point Dependent Wild Bootstrap for Weakly Dependent Estimating Equations
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.32369
   This paper develops a general two-point dependent wild bootstrap (DWB) for weakly dependent estimating equations.
4. Crowdsearch
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.08532
   A common economic process is crowdsearch, wherein a group of agents is invited to search for a valuable object, such as a software vulnerability or a proof-of-work nonce.
5. The missing price feedback: Why studies overstate local grid peaks from synchronized home batteries under real-time pricing
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.35111
   Existing studies consistently find that home batteries optimized against real-time electricity prices create new load peaks in local distribution grids.
6. Policy Learning with Observational Data: The Case of Hepatitis C Treatment for HIV/HCV Co-Infected Patients
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.16593
   Decision-makers frequently must choose a single action from a finite set of alternatives -- for example, physicians selecting a treatment, investors choosing a portfolio risk level, or judges determining sentences.
7. Affirmative Action's Cumulative Fractional Assignments
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2111.11963
   India's reservation policy entitles designated groups to fixed fractions of faculty positions.
8. Simulation in discrete choice models evaluation: SDCM, a simulation tool for performance evaluation of DCMs
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.17014
   Discrete choice models are widely used in economics, transportation, and marketing to explain and predict how decision makers choose among a finite set of alternatives.
9. Identification of Latent Group Effects under Conditional Calibration
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.08798
   We study identification of a structural group effect when the group indicator $G\in\{0,1\}$ is unobserved but the analyst observes a calibrated probability score $p$ satisfying $E[G\mid p,X]=p$.
10. A Resource Allocation Tournament
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.31418
   We introduce and analyze a round-robin simultaneous resource allocation contest, motivated by sports leagues and other competitive environments where agents must distribute limited resources across multiple encounters.
11. Beyond city pairs: Higher-order information in urban growth across borders
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.31159
   We apply higher-order information measures to urban growth across borders and spatial units.
12. Causal Inference under Dynamic Selection and Latent Heterogeneity
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.17170
   I study dynamic treatment effects in panel data under staggered adoption when treatment timing depends jointly on unobserved time-invariant heterogeneity and time-varying pretreatment covariates, including lagged outcomes.
13. A Weakly Group Strategy-Proof and Pareto-Stable Matching Mechanism with Two-Sided Indifferences under Gross Substitutes
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.30807
   We study finite many-to-one matching markets with indifferences on both sides and publicly known firm preferences over sets of workers.
14. Joules-to-GDP: How Much Economic Value Do AI Systems Produce per Unit of Energy?
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.30858
   An AI system can produce more economically valuable work while delivering less value for the energy it consumes.
15. Identification and Estimation in Panel Data Models with Nonparametric Two-Way Fixed Effects
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.27155
   We study identification and estimation of panel data models that are characterised by a common, potentially, infinite-dimensional parameter, $\theta$ and an unknown transformation $g(\alpha _{i},\gamma _{t})$ of two-way fixed effects $(\alpha _{i},\gamma _{t})$ that are themselves unknown.
16. Risk Sensitivity and Stationary Equilibrium in Incomplete Markets
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.30956
   We study stationary equilibrium and comparative statics in an incomplete market economy with risk-sensitive preferences.
17. The Customer Is the Builder: How AI Coding Agents Are Rewriting the Economics of Software
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.30307
   AI coding agents could change whether organizations buy software or build the functionality they need.
18. Evaluating A/B Testing Methodologies via Sample Splitting: Theory and Practice
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.03366
   We develop a theoretical framework for sample splitting in A/B testing environments, where data for each test are partitioned into two splits to measure methodological performance when the true impacts of tests are unobserved.
19. Selling Evidence Bit by Bit
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.30563
   We study the sale of an asset to competitive buyers.
20. The Reaction of Financial Markets to the Releases of DeepSeek R1 and Kimi K3: A Critical Analysis
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.30886
   This paper compares financial-market reactions to the releases of DeepSeek R1 in January 2025 and Kimi K3 in July 2026.
21. Marital Sorting, Household Inequality and Selection
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.07839
   Using CPS data for 1976 to 2025, we explore how wage inequality has evolved for married couples with both spouses working full time full year, and its impact on household income inequality.
22. The Limits of Price Discrimination When the Market Is Unknown
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.30408
   Bergemann, Brooks, and Morris (2015) characterize the consumer and producer surplus pairs that segmentation can produce when the distribution of values is known.
23. The Delegation Divide: An Open Index of AI-Agent Delegability across Occupations and Countries
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.30752
   35.2% of task time in world employment is at least partly delegable to AI agents in 2026, and only 2.5% can be handed over in full.
24. The Anatomy of Dependence in Multivariate Ordered Choice
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2205.05779
   When individuals make simultaneous decisions across multiple ordered dimensions, standard multivariate ordered choice models impose narrow bracketing, with each dimension decided as if the others did not exist.
25. Limits of Disclosure in Search Markets
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.06319
   This paper examines competitive information disclosure in search markets with a mix of savvy consumers, who search costlessly, and inexperienced consumers, who face positive search costs.
26. Playing Against the Machine: Cooperation, Communication, and Strategy Heterogeneity in Repeated Prisoner's Dilemma
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.15852
   We study whether communication sustains cooperation when the partner is an artificial intelligence.
27. Causal inference in staggered adoption panels: The correct comparison set depends on your intervention
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.31537
   A powerful data structure for causal inference is staggered adoption: many units are observed over many time periods, during which some units adopt an irreversible treatment at various time points while others remain untreated.
28. Selling to Non-linear Agents: A Demand-Based Auction
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2003.00545
   Auctions allocate scarce goods, from car licenses to online advertising, to buyers whose utilities are often not linear in money, as with budgets or risk aversion.
29. JaxMARL-BC: Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning for Macroeconomic Modelling, in Seconds
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.28907
   Multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) offers a principled way of populating simulated economies with many heterogeneous decision makers.
30. Testing for peer effects in short panels without identifying the network structure
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.31106
   We propose an instrument-based test for peer effects in short-T panels when the underlying network is unknown.
31. Equilibrium Architecture in Multi-Battle Contests with Count-Dependent Prizes
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.02031
   We study how aggregating local victories shapes participation and equilibrium uniqueness.
32. Can AI Chat Replace Traditional Search? Evidence from a RAG-based Live Events Experiment
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.28639
   Conversational AI tools are being increasingly integrated into online search and browsing interfaces.
33. Inference on Quantile Treatment Effects with Small Treatment Groups
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2105.10965
   We develop inference for conditional quantile treatment effects that allows treatment groups to remain small as the overall sample grows.

Sources in this brief: econ.EM (Econometrics); econ.GN (General Economics); econ.TH (Theoretical Economics).
Selected 33 of 458 available items for this weekly brief.