Clay weekly context brief for the Economics category (ISO week 2026-W45).

Clay tracks publications from the Economics feed list. Below are recent items from this category, each with its source and a short description of what the publication covers when one is available in the source feed.

Recent publications:
1. Quantile Methods in Large Panels with Fixed Effects
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.38665
   We study quantile regression (QR) and instrumental variable quantile regression (QIV) in static panel data models with additive individual fixed effects.
2. Can Artificial Intelligence Forecast Treatment Effects in Economics?
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.38883
   I use LLMs to forecast treatment effects of research studies pre-registered on the AEA RCT Registry and the Open Science Framework.
3. How to Pick a Model if You Must
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.38170
   I axiomatize Berk-Nash equilibrium in decision problems with possibly misspecified models.
4. The Hidden Value of Soft Infrastructure for Urban Flood Adaptation
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.38896
   As sea level rises and flooding events become more frequent, cities are tapping into a range of engineering and planning solutions to reduce flood losses.
5. Capital growth since the 19th century
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.38997
   We argued in an earlier paper (Getty and Tkachenko 2025b), from data reported for net saving and market-value capital by 94 nations over the period 1980-2021, that net saving has had little or no effect on capital growth at the global scale.
6. Optimal Information Disclosure in Classic Auctions Revisited: Endogenous Information Acquisition and Costly Verification
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.38263
   We revisit the influential distribution-independent optimal disclosure result of Bergemann, Heumann, Morris, Sorokin, and Winter (2022), whose optimal disclosure policy reveals low bidder values and pools high values at a critical quantile depending only on the number of bidders, and show that this policy is no longer generally revenue-maximizing even for the familiar uniform and binary valuation distributions, once bidders can endogenously acquire private information through costly verification.
7. Orthogonal Inference for Conditional Z-Estimation without Cross-Fitting: A Distributional Nearest-Neighbor Approach
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.38965
   Estimating conditional parameters, such as heterogeneous treatment effects, often requires rich covariate adjustment, even when the parameters are reported along only a few dimensions.
8. Measuring Longer-Horizon Leveraged ETF Performance
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.39097
   Many investors hold leveraged exchange-traded funds (LETFs) for more than one day.
9. When an effort-maximizing team architecture is unstable
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.38290
   Organizations choose team structures to intensify competition, yet their members may prefer to reorganize.
10. Threshold Regression with a Nearly Integrated Threshold Variable
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.39871
   This paper considers threshold regression with an integrated or local-to-unity threshold variable and a threshold fixed in levels.
11. What is Work For? Labor, Politics, and Meaning in the Age of AI
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.39375
   This paper investigates the role of work in providing meaning, purpose, community, and other non-monetary benefits.
12. The existence of anonymous, stationary, monotone social welfare functions satisfying restricted dominance: an answer to an open question in intergenerational
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.38824
   In this note, we consider social welfare functions on infinite utility streams and answer an open question posed in Asheim et al.
13. How Different are Different Differences-in-Differences? A Large-Scale Meta-Analysis
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.39995
   I use AI-assisted replication to assess the empirical importance of negative weights in two-way fixed effects (TWFE) estimation, drawing on 1,346 staggered-adoption specifications from 108 economics papers.
14. Did the energy crisis turn borrowers green? Zonal power prices and green bond choice on Oslo B{\o}rs
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.39843
   The energy crisis of 2021 to 2023 caused a sharp increase in Nordic electricity prices, with substantial differences across bidding zones.
15. The Welfare Limits of Market Segmentation with Captive Consumers
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.39139
   In a duopoly with captive and contested consumers, I characterize every pair of consumer and producer surplus that can arise under some market composition and some public segmentation, and construct a market that produces each pair.
16. Smooth Threshold GARCH: Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Empirical Evidence
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.40047
   It is well established that the volatility of daily stock returns responds asymmetrically to news, as described by the news impact curve (NIC), which relates volatility to the previous return.
17. When are complements and substitutes dual?
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.39844
   For binary-action games on bipartite networks, strategic complements and strategic substitutes are one and the same: each can be transformed into the other by relabelling the actions of every player on exactly one side.
18. Who Says What: Strategic Communication in Networks
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.40230
   We study a multiplayer communication coordination game in which privately informed agents communicate through a social network and choose their optimal actions while balancing them against their own bliss points and those of their neighbours.
19. Optimal Policy With Noisy Sufficient Statistics
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.40582
   We study how policy-makers should set $k$ policy instruments so as to best hit $m$ (perhaps dynamic) targets, in a linear-quadratic model where there is statistical uncertainty about the causal effects of the policies.
20. A Proof for Generalized Egalitarianism
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.40312
   This paper proves a rigidity theorem characterizing the Gini-type Lorenz-area ordering under general decision-theoretic constraints together with weak Lorenz dominance, thereby resolving the characterization problem pursued in this line of research on egalitarianism.
21. Recognizing Dominance through Local Improvement
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.40243
   Strategy-proofness is the traditional standard for predictable behavior, yet participants often fail to play dominant strategies.
22. Using Multiple Outcomes to Adjust Standard Errors for Spatial Correlation
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.13295
   A researcher interested in a particular outcome variable often observes dozens of other outcomes for the same units.
23. When Does Storage Complement Solar? Investment and Cost Recovery under Advanced Net Metering
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.40650
   We examine the joint PV and storage operational and investment decisions of a prosumer under net energy metering (NEM) and peak/off-peak tariffs.
24. Simultaneous Gradient Learning in First-Price Auctions
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.38487
   We study equilibrium learning in discretized Bayesian games, focusing on first-price auctions as a testbed for gradient-based learning dynamics under private information.
25. From Many Models, One: Macroeconomic Forecasting with Reservoir Ensembles
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.13642
   Model combination offers an alternative to selecting a single forecasting model, particularly when individual models are sensitive to random initialization and hyperparameter choices.
26. Tracks to Modernity: Railroads, Growth, and Civic Institutions in Denmark
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.21141
   We examine how railroads shaped Denmark's nineteenth-century economic transformation and the diffusion of Grundtvigian institutions.
27. Persistence of Bounded Rationality in Financial Markets: An Evolutionary Game-Theoretic Model
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.39198
   Classical theory predicts that irrational traders lose money to rational traders and are eventually driven out of the market.
28. Welfare at Risk: Distributionally Robust Bounds for Policy Evaluation
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.20918
   This paper develops a framework to study how the welfare effects of policy interventions are distributed across individuals when those effects are not directly observed.
29. Learning to Detect Recessions from Pseudo-out-of-sample Tests
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.09664
   Everyone is keen to know when a recession has started, but official announcements come only after several months, and real-time detection methods typically struggle---as the Great Recession showed.
30. Finding Competitive Equilibria in Online Marketplaces with Platform Fees, Taxes, and Subsidies
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.40626
   We study equilibrium computation in multi-unit trading networks with valuations satisfying generalized full substitutes and agent- and transaction-specific piecewise-linear transfer functions.
31. Estimation of BLP models with high-dimensional controls
   Source: econ.EM (Econometrics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.01594
   This paper develops a framework for estimating demand in differentiated product markets with high-dimensional product characteristics, building on the Berry, Levinsohn, and Pakes (1995) model with market-level data; the number of characteristics may exceed the number of markets.
32. The Costs of Early-career Disciplinary Pivots: Evidence from Ph.D. Admissions
   Source: econ.GN (General Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.22805
   Science often advances when researchers pivot from one discipline to another and import new ideas.
33. Monotone comparative statics under dual submodularity, with an application to aggregate deferred acceptance
   Source: econ.TH (Theoretical Economics)
   Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2304.12171
   We develop monotone comparative statics for constrained quantity choices generated by convex costs satisfying dual submodularity, meaning that their Legendre-Fenchel conjugates are submodular.

Sources in this brief: econ.EM (Econometrics); econ.GN (General Economics); econ.TH (Theoretical Economics).
Selected 33 of 444 available items for this weekly brief.